“Very serious” risk. Portuguese companies in the firing line of new tariffs on European countries

Donald Trump has once again resorted to tariffs as a weapon to force Europe to accept his claims to control Greenland, waving additional 10% tariffs for a group of eight countries on the ‘Old Continent’. Although Portugal is not on that list, Portuguese companies face “significant indirect impacts”, as the tariffs affect important trading partners. Business representatives warn that the country could be “severely affected” and that this climate of uncertainty could have “unpredictable consequences” for the national economy.

After a year marked by trade negotiations to reduce customs tariffs on European exports to the US, Washington has once again brought instability to international trade, with Trump threatening Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland with new customs tariffs until “an agreement is reached for the complete and full sale of Greenland”. This 10% surcharge will come into effect on 1 February and could rise to 25% on 1 June, the US President has indicated.

This attack on eight countries, six of which are members of the European Union (EU), is expected to generate a plan of countermeasures, which is already being discussed by European leaders and may include the unfreezing of the tariff plan on 93 billion euros of US imports. “Although it is not currently on the list of threatened countries, Portugal will still be severely affected if the threats are carried out”, admits Rafael Alves Rocha, director-general of CIP – Confederação Empresarial de Portugal (Portuguese Business Confederation).

Although it is not currently on the list of threatened countries, Portugal will still be severely affected if the threats materialise (…) The uncertainty is already very real and this is a very serious risk for the Portuguese economy, with unpredictable consequences.

The CIP representative emphasises that the entity “is monitoring with great concern” the threats from the US and recognises that Portugal could be affected, first and foremost, “by the effects of these measures on the European economy, amplified by the disruption they will cause in global value chains”. “Many Portuguese companies supply components to these eight countries, with particular relevance to industries in Germany and France. If exports from these countries to the United States fall, demand for Portuguese intermediate products will also decrease as a result”, he warns.

Spain, Germany and France are Portugal’s main foreign customers. Together, in 2024 (the final figures for 2025 are not yet known), they accounted for 50.5% of national exports, one percentage point more than in 2023. The neighbouring country remains by far the main buyer of Portuguese goods, accounting for 26% in 2024, 0.3 points more than in 2023.

“Uncertainty is already very real”

In addition to the indirect impact, and given that retaliatory measures are being considered by the EU, “such retaliation would trigger a trade war, affecting all Member States, including Portugal”.

“The uncertainty is already very real and this is a very serious risk for the Portuguese economy, with unpredictable consequences”, warns Rafael Alves Rocha. “We hope that an acceptable solution can be reached through dialogue, but we must recognise that, in the current scenario, it will be more difficult to reach an agreement, as was possible last summer”, he adds.

“Although Portugal is not on the list of countries directly targeted by these additional tariffs, as a member of the European Union, any retaliatory measures will inevitably have an impact on our country”, stresses the president of the Portuguese Business Association (AEP), Luís Miguel Ribeiro.

He points out that “in addition, the countries covered have significant weight as Portugal’s trading partners, so this tariff increase could have significant indirect impacts, particularly in terms of value chains, exports and business confidence, reinforcing a more cautious attitude on the part of economic agents, namely with the possible postponement of investment decisions, which will affect the competitiveness of the economy”.

Luís Miguel Ribeiro also warns that “the recent announcement of additional tariffs by the United States confirms precisely the onset of a new period of increased uncertainty for international trade flows”. He laments a “growing instability” that extends “to various aspects of economic activity, such as investment, and the very security of the European Union”.

José Eduardo Carvalho, president of the AIP (Portuguese Industrial Association), agrees that “the indirect impact is the main concern for Portuguese companies, given their strong integration into European value chains”.

“The Portuguese economy, despite having relatively low direct exposure to the US (exports to this country represent around 1.3% of GDP and 1.3% of employment), is vulnerable to shocks in its main European trading partners”, he explains. “This impact is estimated by the Portuguese Ministry of Finance at around -0.15 percentage points in 2026, mainly through indirect channels”, he explains.

Although the Portuguese economy has relatively low direct exposure to the US (exports to this country account for around 1.3% of GDP and 1.3% of employment), it is vulnerable to shocks in its main European trading partners.

For the president of the AIP, “the escalation of trade tensions, motivated by a geopolitical issue, suggests that 2026 may, in fact, bring a new period of uncertainty for international trade”.

“After a year (2025) already dominated by negotiations and tariff threats, the introduction of tariffs based on motivations that are not strictly commercial (such as the issue of Greenland) increases unpredictability and risk for global companies”, he admits, adding that “the threat of a full-blown trade war, with European retaliation targeting a significant amount of US exports, creates an environment of instability that affects long-term planning and investment”.

For Aurélio Caldeira, director-general of ANIMEE, the association representing companies in the electrical and electronic sector, which includes companies such as Bosch, “more than the nominal value of the tariffs announced, the most harmful and worrying element of this decision is the normalisation of a climate of uncertainty and lack of economic predictability as the new standard in international relations”.

“When unilateral and unexpected decisions become part of everyday economic governance, the pillars of trust that underpin markets are weakened, risk aversion increases, a ‘wait and see’ effect is generated, leading companies and investors to postpone investment decisions, and a progressive erosion of institutional legitimacy is promoted, with structural impacts on the global economy. The highest cost of tariffs is not in the rate applied, but in the trust that is lost”, he says.

The representative of the electrical and electronic sector explains that, “for Portuguese companies, the direct impact will depend mainly on their exposure to exports to the United States and their integration into European value chains”. “In a scenario of escalating tariffs between large economic blocs, experience shows that there are no winners: higher tariffs result in more expensive products, less trade, less investment and economic slowdown”, he criticises.

“In our sector, the main concern is not direct exposure to the US market, not least because the US is not one of our sector’s main export markets, but rather the indirect effects along European chains, since many of our products are integrated into final products that are subsequently exported to the US. so, more than an end market risk, our sector faces a value chain risk”, he explains.

Given the escalating trade tensions with the US, Aurélio Caldeira also points out that, “in a context where rules change without warning, those who diversify gain room for manoeuvre”. “In the face of a constant tariff war, market diversification is no longer an option but a strategic imperative”, he acknowledges, praising the recent EU-Mercosur agreement, which “can help mitigate the effects of these successive tariff crises by opening up new opportunities for access to alternative markets”.

More than the nominal value of the tariffs announced, the most harmful and worrying element of this decision is the normalisation of a climate of uncertainty and lack of economic predictability as the new standard in international relations.

Crucial partnerships

At the same time, he says, “the development of strategic partnerships with emerging economies is crucial to reducing exposure to regions that are more vulnerable to US tariffs and to strengthening the sustainability of Portuguese companies’ growth”.

“Any scenario involving the application of tariffs creates constraints on international trade and always represents a factor in slowing exports”, but “unpredictability becomes more difficult to manage than the tariffs themselves”, admits Ramiro Brito. The president of AEMinho is attentive and expectant regarding the announcement of new tariffs, noting that “the US is run in an arrhythmic and unpredictable way”.

The leader of AEMinho also advocates reciprocity in trade relations, arguing “that Europe, if this scenario is confirmed, will have to react with equally protectionist measures and that this redefinition may result in an initial period of uncertainty, but could create more equal trade relations in the future, which will be good for the European economy”.