Budgt support unit estimates deficit under the 1.9% foreseen for 2022
UTAO pointed out that "it should be remembered that the ministry of finance estimate for 2022 already includes TAP's capital increase, which only took place in the fourth quarter".
Portugal’s Budget Technical Support Unit – UTAO forecasts that the 2022 deficit will be below the target of 1.9% set by the government, also highlighting the size of the accumulated budget surplus after three quarters, according to a report released on Thursday.
In the report analysing general government accounts on national accounts between January and September 2022, delivered today in parliament, the Budget Technical Support Unit (UTAO) said it was possible to “predict a balance in 2022 that is more favourable than the target (- 1.9% of gross domestic product)”.
The experts supporting the MPs point out that “the size of the accumulated budget surplus after three quarters is unique in the recent history of Portuguese public finances”.
The report explained that “this strongly positive result until September and UTAO’s estimate of tax revenue until December well above the value forecast” by the ministry of finance, €1.4 billion more than expected, “allow us to forecast a balance in 2022 that is more favourable than the target (- 1.9% of GDP), bringing it closer to the balanced position”.
However, it adds that “consultation of the execution of expenditure on public accounts up to December revealed a significant increase in expenditure in the last month: just two measures to mitigate the effects of inflation that anticipate charges for 2023 are worth €1.99 billion (0.8% of GDP).”
“They exemplify impacts of fourth quarter measures that mitigate the possibility of reaching a balance close to zero,” it added.
UTAO pointed out that “it should be remembered that the ministry of finance estimate for 2022 already includes TAP’s capital increase, which only took place in the fourth quarter”.
