BPCE, owner of Natixis, evaluates purchase of Novobanco

The French group BPCE, owner of bank Natixis, is evaluating the purchase of Novobanco, ECO has learnt from two sources familiar with the dossier. Groupe BPCE has retail businesses in France and has been exploring the opportunity to invest in Portugal through the acquisition of Novobanco. When contacted, an official source at Groupe BPCE replied that it “does not comment on market rumours”.

Although the Lone Star fund guarantees that it is continuing to prepare Novobanco’s entry into the stock market, it has aroused interest from international investors who believe that the current context of the financial markets, marked by instability, reopens the door to a sale process to another bank, i.e. it is working on the so-called “dual track”, the dispersion in the stock market and a Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) operation in the banking institution.

Founded in 2009, Groupe BPCE is composed of Natixis — which operates in Portugal through a technological innovation centre — and other banks such as Banque Palatine, Caissed’Épargne, Banque Populaire and LeCréditCoopératif.

ECO has learnt that there is at least one other interested international financial group, not Spanish, which has hired lawyers in Portugal to explore this deal, although its name remains a secret. But it is also public and notorious that Caixabank, owner of BPI, BCP and CGD, are not ruling out the possibility of entering the race. “We are analysing this hypothesis”. Paulo Macedo, chairman of CGD, was the clearest of the bankers when asked about Novobanco, which even prompted a statement of “surprise” from the chairman of Santander Portugal, Pedro Castro e Almeida.

On Monday, Novobanco confirmed that it maintains its plan to go ahead with an Initial Public Offering (IPO), although the exact timing of the operation will continue to “depend on market conditions”. However, market analysts consider it unwise for the bank led by Mark Bourke to go ahead with an IPO in the face of stock market volatility.

For the head of Trading at Banco Carregosa, “pausing an IPO operation would not be a sign of fragility, but rather a decision of strategic prudence”, not least because of the history of restructuring and recapitalisation, which “continues to be a sensitive element in any market placement operation”, especially “in an environment where investors favour predictability and regulatory stability”.

“Market instability, possible falls in real interest rates, due to economic stagnation or recession, and global trade tensions — such as the recent wave of tariffs that threatens to curb investment — create an ecosystem where the opportunity cost of “waiting for a better window” can far outweigh the risk of going ahead at an unfavourable time”, João Queiroz defends, speaking to ECO.

In the view of ActivTrades Portugal analyst Henrique Silva, Novobanco’s plans to go public in the second or third quarter “could be jeopardised” if there is a “further deterioration in market fundamentals”.

“The success of a stock market listing depends not only on the company’s fundamentals, but also on investors’ appetite for risk, which, in the current context of uncertainty, will be greatly reduced. Investors today are focused on preserving capital, not taking on new positions with increased risk”, says the ActivTrades Portugal trader, admitting that it may make sense to “hold off until there is greater stability and greater predictability about the impact of the current tariff war”.

XTB’s Henrique Tomé shares this view: “Given the current market environment, it is to be expected that some companies will choose to postpone or suspend their planned IPOs, since market conditions do not appear to be particularly favourable to maximising investor interest, especially in terms of risk appetite”.

The XTB analyst adds that the Portuguese stock market has behaved sideways over the last 12 months, despite a recent attempt to reach new highs on 7 April.

What is certain is that Novobanco has had a “recent path of sustained recovery and robust results”, bearing in mind that in 2024 it recorded record profits of 744.6 million euros, an expressive growth in profitability (RoTE of 17.4%) and consolidated its capital position, the Banco Carregosa analyst pointed out.

May was the month scheduled for Lone Star to launch the sale of Novobanco, if everything went according to plan: publishing the annual financial report and securing authorisation from the European Central Bank (ECB) to distribute dividends of 224.6 million euros, of which 30.4 million euros will go to the Resolution Fund and 25.7 million euros to the Portuguese state.