International economists improve growth forecasts for Portugal
Several international economists have revised upwards Portugal's growth forecasts for 2019, 2020 and 2021, as well as the growth of the Eurozone.
A group of 20 international economists consulted by Bloomberg believes that Portugal will grow more in the next two years. The forecasts of these specialists point to a growth of 1.9% of GDP this year, higher than the 1.7% previously estimated. Concerning the Euro Zone, growth should also be more accentuated.
According to the Bloomberg survey carried out between November 29th and December 5th, cited by Jornal de Negócios, the average forecast of these economists for GDP in 2019 was revised from 1.7% to 1.9%. This update is, therefore, the same as the forecast that the Government delivered to the European Commission in the draft budget in October.
Like Bloomberg, the Council of Public Finances (CFP), the IMF and the OECD revised upwards the growth of the national economy to 1.9%, while the Bank of Portugal and the European Commission improved this forecast to 2%.
For the fourth quarter of this year, the 20 economists expect a growth of 0.4%, above the 0.3% previously estimated. Forecasts also point to a continued growth rate of 0.4% in the first quarter of next year.
Regarding GDP, economists anticipate a slower deceleration of GDP to 1.6%, compared to the 1.4% previously predicted. For 2021, growth is estimated at 1.5%. On the contrary, the inflation rate was revised downwards for 2019 and for 2020: 2019 (0.3% compared to 0.7%) and 2020 (0.9% compared to 1.2%).
Furthermore, a set of 54 economists also revised the Euro-Zone economy’s growth upwards: from 1.1% to 1.2%. For 2020, forecasts point to a 1% rise in GDP and, for 2021, an acceleration to 1.2% is expected. The forecast for inflation in the Euro Zone remained at 1.2%, both for 2019 and 2020.
