The Portuguese Government points to a 118% public debt in 2019 in the Stability Programme

  • ECO News
  • 9 April 2018

Less deficit and less debt. The forecasts the Government is preparing to assume in the Stability Programme make a downward revision of the deficit and public debt goal's for 2018 and 2019.

With less deficit and more growth, the Government is also hoping for less public debt in the Stability Programme that should be approved this week. ECO knows that, in the document, the Executive should inscribe a public debt goal of 122% of GDP for 2018 and 118% for next year.

The new projection for this year represents a downward revision from previous goals. One year ago, when the Finance Ministry handed in the Stability Programme, the forecast was for a 134.2% debt to GDP. When the 2018 State Budget was drafted, last October, the Government pointed to 123.5%. And now the Government is showing itself more optimistic, setting 122% of GDP as a goal.

If the Government meets the goal, it should correspond to a 3.7 percentage points’ correction of the debt ratio between 2017 and 2018.

For 2019, the Executive is pointing to a new decrease. And this time, below the 120% threshold, which is sensitive to investors. ECO ascertained that the Government is working towards a public debt ratio of 118% of GDP. When it updated the Stability Programme one year ago, the Executive took on a forecast of 120% of GDP for the final year of the Parliamentary term.

The descending trajectory will continue in the upcoming years. In the meeting held last Friday with social partners, the Finance minister stated the Government’s forecast for public debt in 2022 (the final year of these forecasts): 102% of GDP.