Internal demand will restrain the GDP
Preliminary data from the INE should show a weak economic growth. Internal demand seems to continue being a problem for the optimistic forecast by Portuguese government headed by António Costa.
Internal demand seems to continue to limit the Portuguese economy’s growth. The Portuguese National Statistical Institute (INE) will disclose their preliminary data, and economic growth should be very weak. This evolution is problematic for the government headed by António Costa, since they continue to be more optimistic than analysts concerning economic expansion.
The rapid estimate for the national accounts for the third trimester, which will be disclosed on Tuesday, should show a 0.3% quarter-to-quarter growth and 1.1% homologous growth. All this after the Portuguese economy had a 0.9% homologous growth and a 0.3% quarter-to-quarter growth between April and May – almost at the same pace as from January to March. The average prediction is made by analysts consulted by Portuguese news agency Lusa.
This evolution should be influenced by a decrease in internal demand: Brussels already gave warnings about the slow pace of the economic recovery, considering it is being too influenced by internal demand.
For 2017, analysts are more pessimistic than the government. The economic study groups estimate the GDP should grow 1.3% next year, through a recovery in investment and exports, but pressured by global uncertainty. In the 2017 State Budget draft, however, António Costa and his team forecast a 1.5% GDP growth.
