Portugal lost export share in most markets in 2025

Portugal lost goods export market share in 57% of the individual markets it served in 2025, according to the Bank of Portugal’s June Economic Bulletin, a sign of broader competitive pressure for the country’s exporters in key foreign markets.

Governor Álvaro Santos Pereira said Portugal lost share in 195 of 341 individual markets. Those markets accounted for 60.5% of goods exports in 2025 and had a negative contribution of 5.6 percentage points to overall market share. Spain made the largest negative contribution, at 1.2 percentage points, reflecting its weight as Portugal’s main goods export destination, with a 30.2% share.

By product, the central bank said agricultural goods made the largest negative contribution, at 0.9 percentage points, although it added that this should largely reflect temporary factors, including lower farm output and price declines in some export products. Optical products, medical instruments and furniture also contributed significantly to the loss, along with stone, plaster, ceramics and glass, and transport equipment.

Among the competitors that gained ground in markets where Portuguese exports lost share were the European Union, the United States and China. In the 195 affected markets, the EU gained share in 87, the US in 69 and China in 75. The Bank of Portugal said the 2025 decline should be seen in the context of instability and major changes in international trade, while Santos Pereira said the first months of this year had been “a little more encouraging”.

The central bank expects exports of goods and services to accelerate from 0.4% in 2025 to 2% this year, driven by goods and other services, while tourism is expected to slow after a weak start to the year. It forecasts export growth of 2.6% in 2027 and 3% in 2028.

Originally published at Eco.pt