Portugal’s deal pipeline points to busy year for megadeals

Portugal is seeing an unusual concentration of large corporate transactions, with processes involving TAP, Indaqua, Logoplaste, Fidelidade and BCP all moving at the same time, in a sign that the country remains active for major deals even as overall M&A volumes have yet to fully recover. According to lawyers interviewed by ECO, the overlap reflects both timing and a broader market cycle, with potential implications for investors tracking Portugal’s corporate and financial sectors.

Pedro Silveira Borges, head of commercial, corporate and M&A at Sérvulo & Associados, told ECO there is “some temporal coincidence” in a relatively small market such as Portugal, where a handful of large transactions can shape the picture for the whole year. But he also said the European Union is showing a “clear temptation” to make merger rules more flexible, as Brussels reviews its merger guidelines in what the article describes as the bloc’s broadest overhaul in 20 years. The European Commission has opened the new guidelines to public consultation until June 26 and plans to publish an economic study on the “dynamic effects” of mergers in September before concluding the review in the fourth quarter.

Diogo Leónidas Rocha, partner at J+Legal for M&A, finance and capital markets, said the clustering of deals reflects a “convergence of cycle”, driven by ECB rate stabilisation, well-capitalised banks and high market liquidity. He said TAP’s sale process has a more predictable timetable, with binding bids from Air France-KLM and Lufthansa expected in the coming months after the government completed its review of non-binding offers in late April. By contrast, he said Logoplaste or Indaqua could close earlier, partly because TAP will face heavier competition scrutiny.

Indaqua’s French owners are expecting binding offers this month, according to ECO, after attracting interest from about 10 investors and valuing the water concession operator at around €1.3 billion on an enterprise value basis. In packaging, Logoplaste’s majority shareholder, Canada’s Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, is exploring the sale of its 60% stake, in a deal that could value the company at about $2 billion, or roughly €1.7 billion, according to Bloomberg as cited by ECO. In financial services, Fidelidade is working on a possible stock market listing next year at a valuation above €3 billion, while insurer Ageas is exploring a stake of up to 5% in BCP.

For international readers, the significance lies not only in the size of the assets coming to market but also in what they may signal about pricing, liquidity and regulation in Portugal. Lawyers cited by ECO said sellers have become more realistic after two years of difficult dealmaking, while competitive processes such as Indaqua suggest Portugal is no longer clearly a buyer’s market in all sectors. At the same time, Brussels’ merger-policy review could influence how companies and investors assess scale, consolidation and timing across Europe, including in Portugal.

Originally published at Eco.pt