Navigator and Corticeira kick off a ‘solid’ earnings season. Profits expected to surpass €5 billion

Navigator and Corticeira Amorim kick off the annual results season on the Portuguese stock exchange this Thursday, 19 February. After closing 2024 with their first drop in profitability in four years, PSI-listed companies are expected to return to profits of over €5 billion and, if analysts’ estimates are correct, a new record could be set for the Lisbon Stock Exchange’s main index.

Although both the paper and cork companies are expected to report a decline in earnings in 2025, pressured by Donald Trump’s tariffs, analysts surveyed by Reuters estimate that 15 of the 16 PSI-listed companies (there are no forecasts for Teixeira Duarte’s earnings) will see an increase in profitability. According to forecasts, the Portuguese index’s listed companies are expected to have ended last year with a net profit of around €5.5 billion, compared to €4.3 billion reported in 2024. If this materialises, it would be a new high, above the €5.4 billion set in 2023.

Galp, EDP and BCP are expected to once again lead profits on the Lisbon stock exchange, with the first two earning more than €1 billion and the only bank listed in Lisbon earning around €997 million, according to analysts’ estimates.

“We believe that the fourth quarter results for 2025 will be similar to those of the previous quarter, i.e., companies most exposed to the Portuguese economy and domestic consumption will benefit, while companies most exposed to the American market, either directly or indirectly, may have had a more challenging quarter”, says Pedro Barata, manager at GNB, who expects “a good round of results”.

For GNB’s domestic equity manager, “it remains to be seen whether companies can exceed investors’ estimates or whether the expected good results are already incorporated into the current share price”. “This is the big question which, added to the message from companies about their estimates for the near future, will dictate the performance of the Portuguese stock market in the coming months”, he anticipates.

João Queiroz, head of trading at Banco Carregosa, points out that the annual results season kicks off at a time when the PSI is trading at its highest level since 2008, noting that “the market’s focus will be less on nominal growth and more on the quality of results: preserving margins, converting EBITDA into free cash flow, capital discipline and, above all, the outlook for 2026”.

“With cost inflation still present and demand slowing down, or even stagnating, in some key markets, this will be a season of differentiation, in which operational execution and management credibility will weigh more heavily than headline earnings”, he points out.

In terms of listed companies, João Queiroz anticipates that BCP “could surprise if it confirms the resilience of its financial margin and credit quality”. In the regulated utilities sector, he says that “EDP and REN benefit from predictability and a defensive profile, although EDPR faces a difficult comparative base”. Meanwhile, “Nos is strong in terms of momentum, but will have to prove its sustainability in a more aggressive competitive environment”.

On the negative side, João Queiroz points out that “paper manufacturers (Altri and Navigator) remain exposed to an adverse pulp cycle; EDP Renováveis faces valuation pressure and normalisation after an exceptional year; CTT and Jerónimo Martins are likely to come under greater scrutiny due to structural margin erosion and the risk of a slowdown in consumption”.

The head of trading at Banco Carregosa also believes that this earnings season could contribute “to consolidation with a slightly positive bias, supported by companies that deliver results and visibility, while disappointments could lead to localised corrections”. “Without a clear and obvious external catalyst, this season will serve more as a test of strength than as the driver of a new structural upturn”, he concludes.

Nuno Mello, head of sales at XTB, says that “the expectation is for a season of solid results overall, but more moderate than two or three quarters ago”. “After a period marked by very strong profits, especially in the financial and energy sectors, we have entered a phase of greater normalisation”, he notes, adding that “in the last earnings season, there was still some positive effect from the inertia of high financial margins and relatively resilient demand”.

For the head of sales, “the market will be more attentive to the sustainability of results and guidance for the rest of the year”. “In a context of anaemic economic growth in the Eurozone and greater external uncertainty, the focus should be more on the quality of profits and cash flow generation than on significant growth”, he adds.

In aggregate terms, XTB’s head of sales believes that “the banking, energy and retail sectors remain best positioned to support high profits and distribute attractive dividends, which historically tends to be well rewarded by the Portuguese market”.

Looking at listed companies, Nuno Mello highlights BCP, which “is coming off a cycle of strong profit growth, benefiting from the interest rate environment, and was already the main driver of the PSI in 2025, with a rise of close to 93%”. And “if it maintains its growth, even at a more moderate pace, and signals an attractive capital distribution, it remains a candidate to surprise with the robustness of its banking results”.

Galp, which has been one of the PSI’s profit “champions”, if it “combines good operational execution with constructive messages about energy transition and capex discipline, could once again be a positive support for the index”.

Finally, the analyst highlights Sonae, which had a “particularly strong” 2025. “If the figures confirm resilient sales and margin growth in a still challenging macro environment, the retail sector may continue to be seen as a relatively defensive haven within the PSI”, he explains.

On the other hand, the expert notes that “there are segments where the risk of disappointment remains high, in light of what we have seen in previous earnings seasons”. “In the more cyclical sectors exposed to volatility in raw material prices or heavy investment in energy transition, there is greater dispersion of results and greater sensitivity to downward revisions in guidance”, he anticipates, highlighting the EDP family and paper and cork manufacturers in this group.

“In parallel with recent seasons, the Portuguese market tends to react more to surprises in the heavyweights – EDP, Galp, BCP, retail – than to the 15 listed companies as a whole; if these four pillars deliver constructive figures and messages, it is plausible to see a prolongation of the PSI’s good momentum, albeit with more selective movements than in 2025”, concludes Nuno Mello.