Foreign worker arrivals fall 35% in one year. Departures increase for seven consecutive years
In two years, the net migration of foreign workers has fallen by almost half, driven by a growing increase in the number of departures and a contraction in the number of people entering the country.
After an unprecedented immigration boom between 2022 and 2023, which led thousands of foreigners to choose Portugal as their destination, an analysis by the Bank of Portugal reveals an abrupt reversal in this trend, with the net migration of foreigners entering the country in free fall in 2024 and accelerating dramatically throughout this year.
The analysis, published in the December Economic Bulletin, shows that not only is the number of foreigners entering Portugal falling sharply, but the number of foreigners leaving the country has doubled in just two years. The monthly evolution of the net migration of foreigners, calculated on the basis of Social Security records by the Bank of Portugal, shows a reversal of the trend.
After May 2023 saw a record 24,900 net entries of foreign nationals, the scenario changed radically. In May 2024, also the highest month of the year, that number fell to 22,400 individuals. This year, in the same month (also the highest of the year), the balance plummeted to 13,100, a 47% drop in just two years. “The indicator based on Social Security records suggests a reduction in the migration balance of foreign nationals after the peak recorded in May 2023”, reads the Bank of Portugal’s analysis.
The second half of 2024 marked an accentuation of this trend, with net inflows falling to around 7,300 individuals per month on average, compared to around 16,500 in the same period of 2023. This development is “essentially determined by the decrease in arrivals”, which fell from around 20,000 in the second half of 2023 to around 12,000 in the following year, according to figures from the Bank of Portugal’s analysis.
Fewer arrivals and departures growing strongly
The data from Banco de Portugal comes at a time when public debate on immigration has reached fever pitch, with discourse often pointing to a supposed excess of immigrants in the country. However, economic analysis of the figures reveals a much more complex reality: Portugal is, in fact, losing its ability to attract and retain foreign citizens at a time when the economy increasingly depends on this influx to compensate for an ageing population and labour market needs.
The influx of foreigners into Portugal has slowed considerably over the last year. In the first eight months of 2025 (January to August), around 95,200 foreign nationals registered with Social Security entered the country, corresponding to a monthly average of 11,900 people. This represents a 35.4% drop compared to the same period in 2024, when 147,400 new foreigners entered the country (an average of 18,400 per month).
Going back to 2023, in the same period, the number of entries reached 175,900 individuals, equivalent to an average of 22,000 per month. The progression is clear: from 22,000 foreign individuals who entered Portugal in the first eight months of 2023 to 18,400 and now to 11,900 in the same period, in a clear downward trend. But that’s not all.
If entries are falling, exits are following the opposite trend with particular intensity. According to the latest Social Security data compiled by Banco de Portugal for 2024, more than 45,000 foreigners left the Social Security registers last year, an increase of 39.6% compared to 2023. This growth follows another increase of 41.3% in 2023 compared to 2022.
The data shows that the number of foreigners leaving the Social Security system has been increasing for seven consecutive years. The scale of the exodus is striking: in 2024, it is almost double that recorded in 2022 and more than four times that of 2018.
This exodus of foreigners, many of whom are skilled and employed, represents a structural challenge for the national economy, which increasingly depends on immigrant labour to sustain growth. The Bank of Portugal’s analysis is based on an indicator constructed from Social Security administrative records, which includes all individuals who pay contributions or receive social benefits.
The methodology attempts to approximate the official concept of net migration, considering only foreign nationals registered with Portuguese social security who are resident in the country. “The existence of active social security records provides a reliable indication of an individual’s presence in a country”, the document states.
However, the Bank of Portugal acknowledges that the indicator has significant limitations. “In recent months, it has been very difficult to distinguish between permanent and temporary movements, which means that the most recent observations of the indicator are more prone to revision.” To ensure a robust analysis, departures only consider records with eight or more consecutive months of absence, i.e. until December 2024.
The database excludes younger and older individuals, who are under-represented because they are less likely to have a connection with Social Security, and only covers individuals in a regularised situation.
A comparison with official statistics from the National Statistics Institute (INE) also reveals significant differences. Between 2011 and 2023, cumulative net inflows calculated on the basis of Social Security records stood at around 830,000 individuals, while the INE calculated a cumulative migration balance of around 470,000 individuals. “These differences reflect both the limitations of the indicator presented here and the difficulties of traditional statistical collection methods in capturing the dynamics of current migratory movements in real time.”
The Bank of Portugal’s analysis concludes that, in a context of changing migratory patterns, “the combination of various indicators is essential for monitoring these phenomena”.
Despite their limitations, Social Security administrative data offer a more up-to-date and detailed view of the migratory reality than traditional survey methods, allowing monthly monitoring of the evolution of one of the most decisive factors for the Portuguese economy.
