Inflation down 0.2 pp to 9.9% in November

The year-on-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 9.9% in November, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, Statistics Portugal (INE) said on Wednesday.

“Rounded to one decimal place, this rate coincides with the value of the flash estimate released on November 30,” Statistics Portugal said.

In November, the underlying inflation indicator (CPI excluding unprocessed food and energy) registered a year-on-year change of 7.2%, up 0.1 percentage points on October and “the highest recorded since December 1993.

The change in the energy index was 24.7% (compared with 27.6% in the previous month). In comparison, the unprocessed food index recorded a change of 18.4% (0.5 percentage points below the previous month), compared with the hike recorded for processed food, with a change of 16.8% (14.1% in October).

By class of expenditure and compared to the previous month, INE highlighted the increases in the year-on-year change rates of ‘food and non-alcoholic beverages’, ‘health’ and ‘alcoholic beverages and tobacco’, with changes of 20.0%, -2.3% and 3.8%, respectively (18.6%, -3.2% and 3.0% in the previous month).

In the opposite direction, ‘transport’ and ‘restaurants and hotels’ slowed to 7.9% and 12.8%, respectively (9.9% and 16.3% in the previous month).

In November, ‘food and non-alcoholic beverages’, ‘housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels’, ‘transport’ and ‘restaurants and hotels’ made the most significant positive contributions to the year-on-year change in the CPI, while ‘health’ registered the only negative contribution.

Compared to the previous month, the contribution of ‘food and non-alcoholic beverages’ to the year-on-year change in the CPI increased.

In contrast, the contributions from ‘transport’ and ‘restaurants and hotels’ decreased.

According to INE, in November, the monthly variation of the CPI was 0.3% (1.2% in October and 0.4% in November 2021), while the average variation over the last 12 months was 7.3% (6.7% in October).

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) registered a year-on-year change of 10.2% in November, which was 0.4 percentage points lower than in the previous month and 0.2 percentage points higher than the value estimated by Eurostat for the euro area (in October, the rate in Portugal had been identical to that of the euro area).

Excluding unprocessed foodstuffs and energy, the year-on-year change in the HICP in Portugal was 8.1% in November (8.0% in the previous month), higher than the corresponding rate for the euro area (estimated at 6.6%), showing “a very pronounced upward profile in recent months”, states INE.

In September, the HICP registered a nil monthly variation (1.1% in the previous month and 0.3% in November 2021) and an average variation over the last 12 months of 7.5% (6.9% in the previous month).