Annualised inflation revised down to 10.1% in October

The year-on-year change in Portugal’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 10.1% in October, 0.1 percentage points lower than the estimate released at the end of that month, the highest since May 1992, INE announced this Friday.

“Rounded to one decimal place, this rate is 0.1 percentage points lower than the flash estimate released on October 28, although the difference was only 0.01 percentage points,” Statistics Portugal (INE) said.

In October, the underlying inflation indicator (CPI excluding unprocessed foodstuffs and energy) registered a year-on-year change of 7.1%, up 0.2 percentage points compared with September. According to INE, “this is the highest value registered since January 1994”.

The change in the energy products index stood at 27.6% (5.4 percentage points higher than the previous month), while the unprocessed foodstuffs index recorded its biggest year-on-year change since June 1990, at 18.9% (16.9% in September).

By classes of expenditure, INE highlights the year-on-year growth rates of ‘housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels’ and ‘foodstuffs and non-alcoholic beverages’, up 18.5% and 18.6%, respectively (14.6% and 16.4% in the previous month).

On the other hand, ‘restaurants and hotels’ and ‘miscellaneous goods and services’ slowed to 16.3% and 2.6%, respectively (17.7% and 3.0% in the previous month).

In October, ‘food and non-alcoholic beverages’, ‘housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels’, ‘transport’ and ‘restaurants and hotels’ made the most positive contributions to the year-on-year change in the CPI.

Health’ was the only class with a negative contribution.

In comparison with the previous month, INE highlights the increase in contributions to the year-on-year change in the CPI for ‘food and non-alcoholic beverages’, ‘housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels’ and ‘transport’.

In contrast, the contribution of ‘restaurants and hotels’ and ‘miscellaneous goods and services’ fell.

According to INE, in October, the monthly variation of the CPI was 1.2%, similar to that of the previous month and 0.5% in relation to October 2021. The average variation over 12 months was 6.7% (6.0% in September).

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) recorded a year-on-year change of 10.6% in October, 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points lower than the value estimated by Eurostat for the euro area (in September, the rate in Portugal had also been 0.1 percentage points lower than the euro area rate).

Excluding unprocessed food and energy, the HICP in Portugal reached a year-on-year change of 8.0% in October (7.9% in September), higher than the corresponding rate for the euro area (estimated at 6.4%).

In October, the HICP recorded a monthly change of 1.1% (1.3% in the previous month and 0.4% in October 2021) and an average change over the last 12 months of 6.9% (6.2% in the previous month).