Consumer price inflation slows to 0.1% in March – INE flash estimate

Portugal’s rate of consumer inflation is expected to be 0.1% in March, down 0.3 of a percentage point from February, according to a flash estimate released by the National Statistics Institute (INE) on Tuesday, the last day of the month.

“This deceleration was mainly due to the behavior of the index for energy products, which is expected to decrease -3.1% (+0.9%in February), reflecting the evolution in prices in international markets as a result of the decrease in demand for these products due to the pandemic, as well as the disputes among oil-producing countries,” reads the INE release. “The core inflation index, which excludes energy and unprocessed food products components, was nil (0.1 p.p. lower than in the previous month).”

In a special note, the INE release states: “Although this information pertaining to March already reflects some of the impact of the current situation due to the pandemic COVID-19, it is possible that the analysed trends will change substantially. Nonetheless, the information available today is useful to establish a reference to assess future developments.”

The Consumer Price Index in March is expected to be up 1.5% on the month, after a 0.6% fall in February. In March 2019 the month-on-month increase had been 1.8%.

The average year-on-year rate over the 12 months to March is an estimated 0.3%, the same as in February.

The Portuguese Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP), which is calculated for comparision with other European Union member states, is seen up 0.1% on March 2019, when in February it was up 0.5% on a year earlier.

Final data for March CPI is to be published on 10 April.