If the elections were to happen today, these would be the results. For the PS, it would mean being close to absolute majority; as for the PSD, voting intentions would be close to historical minimums.
The Socialist Party (PS) government, sustained by the parliamentary coalition with the Left Block (BE) and the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP), has been in office for a year. That was the solution found in order to have António Costa – PS – become the country’s prime minister, but if the Portuguese elections were to take place today, a left-wing agreement might not have been needed. Pools place the PS closer to absolute majority; as for the Social Democratic Party (PSD), voting intentions are close to historical minimums.
The socialists are ahead in the pools done by the Portuguese Catholic University for the TV station RTP, radio station Antena 1, and newspapers Jornal de Notícias and Diário de Notícias. They hold 43% of the voting intentions, which is higher than the 34% a pool gave the PS a year ago. Therefore, this new pool places António Costa closer to an absolute majority, which essentially means he would be close to being able to dismiss the left parties’ support.
The Left Block (BE) holds 8% of the voting intentions, higher than the 6% held by CDU (Coalition for Democratic Unit), although both parties have lost two percentage points when compared to the last general elections. Together, the PS, BE and CDU hold 57% voting intentions.
The PSD would have 30% of the votes, close to an historical minimum, and the Democratic and Social Centre Party – People’s Party coalition (CDS-PP) holds 6% of the voting intentions. The PSD and CDS have 36% of the voting intentions, according to the pools done by the Catholic University. The result is well below the 41% of the votes both parties got on last year’s elections.