IMF lifts Portugal growth forecast but stays below government
The IMF now sees Portugal’s economy growing 2.1% this year, about twice the euro zone pace, but its outlook remains below the government’s budget forecasts.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Portugal’s economy, now expecting GDP growth of 2.1% this year and 1.9% next year, according to its updated World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday. The figures suggest Portugal will expand at roughly twice the pace projected for the euro zone in 2026, a signal of relative resilience that matters for investors and companies tracking southern Europe.
The new IMF estimates represent upward revisions of 0.4 percentage points for 2026 and 0.3 points for 2027 from its previous projections. Even so, they remain below the Portuguese government’s assumptions in its 2027 draft budget, which forecasts growth of 2.3% this year and 2.1% next year.
For the euro zone, the IMF expects growth of 1.1% this year, up from 0.9% in its July projections, and 1.2% in 2027, unchanged from its previous estimate. The fund said the bloc’s pickup was driven mainly by a strong rebound in Ireland and stronger momentum in Spain, while growth was broadly stable elsewhere.
The IMF also said inflation pressures in the euro zone are likely to ease only gradually. It forecasts headline inflation at 3.1% this year and 2.8% in 2027, and said core inflation should return to the European Central Bank’s 2% target only by mid-2028. For Portugal, it expects harmonised consumer price inflation of 3.2% this year and 3% next year, above the Portuguese finance ministry’s budget projections.
Originally published at Eco.pt
