EDP forecasts higher profits, dividends and €12 billion in investment by 2028
The EDP Group will invest €12 billion by 2028, more than half of which will be in renewable energy. At the same time, it expects to increase its dividends and profits. EDPR is expected to double them.
EDP forecasts a gross investment of around €12 billion between 2026 and 2028, according to the electricity company, on the day it presented its strategic plan. In 2028, the company expects to earn €1.3 billion and even sees its subsidiary EDP Renováveis (EDPR) doubling its results in three years, supported by growth in the United States. Along the way, the parent company’s dividend will grow by 5% to 21 cents per share.
The information was shared in a document published on the website of the Portuguese Securities Market Commission (CMVM). Through its clean energy subsidiary, EDP Renováveis, the listed company intends to invest around €7.5 billion between 2026 and 2028, with “higher returns” in solar, wind and energy storage systems.
In geographical terms, the majority — 95% — of these investments will focus mainly on ‘A’ rating markets. This category includes the United States and Europe, which take up 80% of the investment budget. The commitment to renewables in the US market is even stronger: the weight of this territory in the investment portfolio will increase from 50% to 60%.
Looking at technologies, EDPR plans to install 5 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable capacity during this period, strengthening the weight of solar energy and storage in the US.
The strategy involves signing long-term contracts (through Power Purchase Agreements or Contracts for Difference) with counterparties such as large technology companies and data centre operators, as well as US utilities, as these “face strong growth in electricity demand”.
In addition to renewables, which account for more than half of the planned investments, EDP intends to strengthen its position in the electricity grid segment. The plan is to spend €3.6 billion in this area, two-thirds of which will be in the Iberian Peninsula. It will also strengthen its flexible electricity generation (flexgen) portfolio and customer base in Portugal and Spain.
The investment now announced is lower than that of the previous strategic plan, which provided for €25 billion for the period from 2023 to 2026. However, this target has been cut more than once: in 2024, EDP announced a “slowdown in investment” until 2026, setting a target for the period between 2024 and 2026 of a gross investment of €17 billion; at the beginning of this year, it again moderated the pace of investment until 2026, proposing a ceiling of €4.4 billion per year in investment volumes, 22% below what it had estimated in May of the previous year.
In order to “free up capital for investment in key growth markets”, EDP aims to generate €5 billion in cash flow from asset rotation transactions, corresponding to average gains of €0.2 billion per year, supplemented by €1 billion in disposals during the period.
Profits rise until 2028. EDPR doubles
In its new strategic plan, EDP sets the bar for net income at €1.2 billion in 2025 and between €1.2–1.3 billion in 2026. By 2028, it even expects to reach €1.3 billion, 8% above the estimate for 2025, “improving the quality profile of results with less weight from asset turnover gains and greater weight from regulated markets with an ‘A’ rating”.
However, these forecasts are similar to those put forward by CEO Miguel Stilwell d’Andrade in July this year, when he admitted that recurring profit (i.e. excluding extraordinary items) would be in the range of €1.2 billion to €1.3 billion in 2025.
With regard to EBITDA, the estimate of €4.9 billion in 2025 is reiterated. From next year onwards, the forecast is that it will be between €4.9 and €5 billion in 2026 and reach €5.2 billion in 2028, 5% above the estimate for 2025. Growth is expected to be supported by expansion in renewables and networks.
Looking at the clean energy subsidiary, “net income is expected to double”, according to the plan. It is expected to rise from €300 million in 2025 to €600 million in 2028. The EBITDA target for 2025 remains unchanged at €1.9 billion in 2025, then increasing to €2.1-2.2 billion in 2026 and finally €2.2 billion in 2028, 15% above this year’s estimate. This evolution takes into account the “strong growth” in the US, which will account for almost 70% of EBITDA in 2028.
These forecasts come a day after the presentation of the results for the first nine months of the year for each of these listed companies, whose profits declined. EDP recorded a 12% drop in profits to 952 million euros through September, while EDPR’s net income fell 49% to 107 million euros through September.
Dividend also grows
In parallel with the increase in profits, the listed company intends to deliver more remuneration to shareholders. EDP points to “an increase in the minimum dividend” to 21 cents per share, a rise that should take place until 2028, representing an increase of 5% compared to 2025. In this sense, the company claims to be guaranteeing “attractive returns” for shareholders.
In the case of EDP Renováveis, a “stable” scrip dividend programme is planned, with a payout of between 30% and 50% in the years up to 2028.
Net debt reduced
The listed company expects a reduction in net debt of €1 billion, from €16 billion in 2025 and 2026 to €15 billion in 2028. The decline is due to “disciplined investment and robust cash flow generation”. EDP therefore expects to maintain a ‘BBB’ credit rating, “while maintaining a resilient, low-risk portfolio”.
In its previous strategic plan, presented in 2023, the electricity company predicted a rise in debt from €13 billion to €17 billion by 2026.
EDP Renováveis will contribute to this trajectory. The subsidiary is expected to reduce its debt by €1.5 billion, from €8 billion in 2025 to €6.5 billion in 2028.
