Consumer inflation accelerates to 3.3% in January

  • ECO News
  • 31 January 2022

"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual rate is estimated to have increased to 3.3% in January 2022 (2.7% in December 2021)," Statistics Portugal (INE) announced on Monday.

The year-on-year rate of change in Portugal’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January is estimated to have accelerated to 3.3%, the highest since February 2012 (3.6%). In December, the rate of change had been set at 2.7%, Statistics Portugal (INE) said on Monday.

“Based on the information available until the date of the present press release, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual rate is estimated to have increased to 3.3% in January 2022 (2.7% in December 2021),” INE revealed.

However, as a significant part of inflation is justified by the increase in energy prices, the “core inflation index, which excludes energy and unprocessed food products components, was 2.5% (1.8% in the previous month), with the prices of most CPI categories accelerating,” Statistics Portugal explained. It should be noted that the underlying inflation indicator is already above 2%.

The influence of energy prices continues to be remarkable, although the increase in prices is starting to be more widespread. The statistics office reveals that the annual rate of change of the index for energy products is estimated to be 12% in January (11.2% in December). In the case of unprocessed food, an increase from 3.2%, in December, to 3.4%,  this month, is forecast.

The core inflation index, which excludes energy and unprocessed food products components, was 2.5% (1.8% in the previous month), with the prices of most CPI categories accelerating. The annual rate of change of the index for energy products is estimated to be 12.0% (11.2% in December) and the estimated rate for unprocessed food is 3.4% (3.2% in the previous month).

The CPI 12-month average rate was estimated to be 1.5%, which should lead the PS government – with this Sunday’s absolute majority, António Costa will remain prime minister – to revise upwards the estimate it had in the OE2022: only 0.9% in 2022, the same rate they estimated for 2021 (the final figure was 1.3%).

The estimate of the Portuguese Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) annual rate of change was 3.4%, (2.8% in December.