Statistics confirm year-on-year inflation rate at -0.1% in September
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Portugal was -0.1% in September. The rate was 0.1 percentage points lower than in August.
The year-on-year rate of change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Portugal was -0.1% in September, in line with the quick estimate released at the end of September by Statistics Portugal (INE).
According to the INE, the underlying inflation indicator (total index excluding unprocessed food and energy) recorded a year-on-year change of -0.2%, a rate 0.1 percentage points lower than that recorded in August and higher than that estimated at the end of September (of -0.1%).
The monthly variation in the CPI was 1.0% (-0.3% in the previous month and 1.1% in September 2019).
The average variation over the last twelve months remained at 0.1%.
The Portuguese Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), in turn, recorded a year-on-year change of -0.8%, down 0.6 percentage points on the previous month and 0.5 percentage points below that estimated by Eurostat for the Euro area (in August 2020, the change in the Portuguese HICP had been identical to that of the Euro area).
The HICP recorded a monthly change of 0.8% (-0.3% in the previous month and 1.4% in September 2019) and an average change of the last twelve months of zero (0.1 percentage points lower than in the previous month).
The Ministry of Finance expects the CPI to register a deflation of 0.1% this year, but points to an inflation of 0.7% next year, according to the report of the State Budget for 2021 that accompanies the government’s bill for the State Budget for 2021 (OE2021) delivered on Monday night in parliament.
In the document, and according to the institutions’ estimates, the government points out that inflation measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is between -0.2% pointed out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and 0.2% of the ‘one-hit’ scenario of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), after registering a growth of 0.3% in 2019.
“For 2021, consumer price growth forecasts range from 0% (OECD double-hit scenario) to 1.4% (IMF),” according to the report presented by the government.
“The current scenario forecast points to a reduction of 0.1% for 2020 and an increase of 0.7% in 2021, falling within the ranges mentioned above.”
In June, the European Commission estimated zero inflation for Portugal in 2020, pointing to a price increase of 1.2% in 2021.
In September, the Public Finance Council predicted inflation of 0.1% for 2020 and 0.7% for 2021.
Bank of Portugal, which did not present figures for 2021, has estimated zero inflation for this year.
