IMF expects Portugal’s economy to grow 1.9% this year

  • ECO News
  • 15 October 2019

The Fund forecasts that the Portuguese economy will grow 1.9% this year, two tenths more than anticipated in June.

Despite the cut in forecasts for the world economy and the Eurozone, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its projections for Portugal upwards, now forecasting that the economy will grow 1.9% this year, two-tenths more than anticipated in July.

Against a generalized slowdown in the world economy, the IMF revised upwards its forecasts for the Portuguese economy, following the statistical review carried out by INE in September, which significantly increased GDP figures in 2017 and 2018, with implications for 2019 and 2020.

In its new forecasts, the IMF revises from 1.7% to 1.9% the growth it expects for the Portuguese economy in 2019, aligning its forecast with that made by Mario Centeno in April in the Stability Program and with that of the Public Finance Council, held last week.

The Bank of Portugal also updated its forecasts last week to take into account the new data from INE, and now points to a growth of 2% this year.

The upward revision extended into next year, but did not change the trend. The Portuguese economy will continue to slow down and, except for major changes, this slowdown will continue during the next legislature.

According to the IMF, the Portuguese economy will grow only 1.6% in 2020 (one tenth more than expected in July), and the trend will be to slow down until 2024, when it estimates that the economy will grow 1.5%.

The scenario is still a little more encouraging when comparing the expected result for the Portuguese economy with the Eurozone average, since throughout this period the IMF sees a higher growth of the Portuguese economy.