GDP and Investment decelerating, a surplus in 2020. These are the IMF numbers for Portugal

The International Monetary Fund sees the Portuguese growth on a descending route. From the 2.1% registered last year, the economy should cool down to 1.5% in terms of GDP performance by 2020. The forecasting from the institution led so far by Christine Lagarde is more pessimistic that the Portuguese government’s that anticipates a GDP deceleration to 1.9% for both the current and the next year.

Under article IV about Portugal, the Bretton Woods organisation foresees a fall of 2.9% in the evolution of investment between 2019 and 2020. A decrease in the investment that is almost equivalent to this year’s foreseen increase – from 4.5% to 7%.

Both the IMF and the Portuguese Government forecast a 0.2% deficit, but disagree over the surplus for 2020. While the government is expecting a surplus of 0.3%, the IMF believes it will be of 0.1%. The IMF is also 1% more pessimistic than the government about public debt (IMF forecasts 116% of GDP as the government projects 115.2%).

Regarding unemployment, the situation is different. While António Costa believes the unemployment will decrease to 6.3% in 2020, the IMF is more optimistic and points to 5.7%. The Portuguese government only forecasts such a low-level unemployment rate for 2022 (5.6%).