Government expects 2.2% GDP growth and 6% unemployment rate for 2019

  • ECO News
  • 15 October 2018

Finance Minister Mário Centeno is planning the State Budget 2019 with a 2.2% economic growth and a 6% unemployment rate. The deficit should hit 0.2%, while public debt will get to 117% of GDP.

The macroeconomic scenario for State Budget 2019 expects the economic growth to be decreasing by 0.1% in comparison to prior estimates. The minister of finance, Mario Centeno, has updated to 2.2% the estimates for GDP growth, and to 6% for the unemployment rate, while deficit should hit 0.2%.

The 2.2% estimate represents a downward movement in comparison to the previous estimate of 2.3%, but it is still a quite optimistic outlook, as the IMF has a rather more negative idea about where the country will be (1.8%), as well as the country’s banking regulator, the Bank of Portugal (1.9%).

Additionally, the Animals and Nature Party (PAN) has told reporters, after its hearing with the minister, that the government expects a reduction of unemployment to 6% for next year, while before it was expecting it to hit 7.2% in 2019, and prospects are seemingly better as well for the public debt, which was downwardly reviewed now at 117% of GDP, a percentage point difference from the prior estimate of 118.4% of GDP  the Stability Programme.

As for the deficit, André Silva, spokesperson from PAN, has told journalists that the value being discussed stands at 0.2%, but he also warned that the State budget was not final yet by then (PAN’s parliamentarian’s statements were all given last Tuesday, the 9th of October, after meeting the minister of finance).

The parliamentarian from PAN was the first to meet with the minister of finance to discuss the general lines of the State Budget, followed by PSD, PEV, BE, PCP and CDS.

Today, the Government will officially deliver the State Budget for 2019 to the Parliament.